Russian president keeps his silence as more troops arrive in Ukraine’s southern Republic of Crimea.
The pretext for the enlargement of russian military personnel in the region is explained by the unrest in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, although some reinterpret the actions as russian takeover of Crimea (that became Ukraine in 1954).
There is a lot of speculation of what russia’s intentions are and what steps it is prepared to take and consequences to face.
Dr Galeotti in his blog argues that there is an important caveat to Putin’s decision making – rationality of his actions.
However, the situation among the two countries is essentially one of war. You can call it an intervention, peacekeeping operation or else. But, the military blockade of garrisons and Yatsenyuk’s acknowledgement of the state of war speak for themselves. There are military men on the peninsular confronting each other’s actions and intensions.
And in war calculus is not paramount. Action is.
It appears that Putin, as CinC, is acting with support of his generals and no consultation with his diplomats, as Ъ investigation of decision-making process on Ukraine suggests.
The pendulum is still in motion and the only thing we can do is observe and record.